THE RACE FOR 2008 is off and running and the field is rapidly-expanding. Gone are the days in which a candidate can wait passively on the sidelines and allow his or her rivals to slug it out in the primary process before stating intentions (i.e. Richard Nixon, 1968). Today, fundraising is king, with public exposure a distant second. If a candidate cannot prove that he can raise enough money early on in the process, he can surmise that only he and his mother feel he would make a good president.

The Republicans seeking the 2008 nomination can be divided into the following factions:  

• The Front-Runners - Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Senator John McCain (Arizona), Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney
• The Long-Shots - Senator Sam Brownback (Kansas), Huckabee, Congressman Duncan Hunter (California), Congressman Tom Tancredo (Colorado), Former Wisconsin Governor and former Secretary of Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson
• The "Maybes" - Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich
• The "RINO" (Republican in Name Only) Candidate - Senator Chuck Hagel (Nebraska)

RUDY GIULIANI IS ARGUABLY THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE MOST LIKELY TO WIN in 2008. In early polling numbers (polls conducted by Time, CNN, ABC/Washington Post, Gallup, and Zogby, and courtesy of realclearpolitics.com) , the former New York City Mayor enjoys leads in a field including John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich. In other polls, he helps turn traditional blue states red head-to-head against Hillary Clinton (Quinnipiac University poll, with a HT to Scot Lehigh of the Boston Globe). The Mayor enjoys wide appeal largely because of his image as a crime fighter as a New York prosecutor and later as its mayor. New York's sharp decrease in violent crime under his administration drew national attention, but it was his performance during and after the September 11 attacks which cemented his place as "America's Mayor." Giuliani demonstrated a reassuring, yet take-charge, demeanor which helped the city recover. He is viewed as a strong advocate of the global war on terror (GWOT). However, the big question concerning a Giuliani candidacy is his baggage (three marriages and two messy and public divorces) and his support of issues contrary to the social conservative base (gun control, civil unions, abortion). The Mayor's fundraising capabilities are tremendous, he is a dynamic public speaker, and he can rally the base. The question for 2008 is will the social conservatives ignore "Giuliani the social liberal" and pull the lever for "Giuliani the strong and steadfast leader?" 

SENATOR JOHN McCAIN HAS ACHIEVED FRONT-RUNNER STATUS largely because of his favorable coverage in the mainstream media (MSM), although that position may be eroding. Once upon a time, nary a night passed when stories about McCain the "maverick" weren't blasted across the network news. One moment you saw McCain leading the "Gang of 14" bi-partisan panel of Senators reaching compromise on judicial filibusters. The next moment, you saw him criticizing Defense Secretary Rumsfeld. McCain used to be the MSM's favorite Senator because he was likely to be against the administration's policies on a number of issues. Now, Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska is looking to challenge for that status. Despite his frequent criticisms of the Bush administration, McCain is somewhat tolerable to the GOP base because of his largely steadfast support of the GWOT. However, should he support the Biden/Warner resolution, or seek any deal to weaken it (i.e. timelines, benchmarking, etc.), his chance of securing the base - especially among the conservatives - will be substantially weakened.

FORMER MASSACHUSETTS GOVERNOR MITT ROMNEY IS THE CANDIDATE closest to the Reagan wing of the Republican party who seemingly has a chance to win the nomination. Governor Romney comes with an extremely successful business record, and his favorable public image as rescuing the Salt Lake Olympic Committee from fundraising shortages and scandal was well-deserved. The 2002 Salt Lake games were a huge commercial success, and helped catapult Romney into the governor's mansion in Massachusetts. Governing perhaps the most blue state in the union and saddled with a Democratic legislature, Romney produced balanced budgets without tax increases. He stood firm in his opposition to gay marriage and civil unions, and won support from social conservatives nationwide. Leaving office still popular, Romney has jumped full-tilt into his candidacy. He is likely the most technologically-savvy of the serious GOP candidates. His web-based "Mitt TV" clearly ahead of his challengers and embraces the online community in a way which was so effective for Howard Dean in 2004. Romney's biggest question, however, is his religious faith. A Mormon has never been a serious contender for either major party's nomination, and there are Republicans who simply will not vote for a Mormon to be President. This clear religious bigotry does affect how the primary races will turn out, and it should be interesting how the other candidates treat this "issue." It is clear that Romney's challengers have already begun to take his candidacy seriously - see the YouTube video of Romney's Senate run against Ted Kennedy in 1994 where he waffles on his abortion stance (he has recently reaffirmed his "pro life" stance, and stated that he changed his mind).

OF THE OTHER CANDIDATES, the "maybe" candidates, Jeb Bush and Newt Gingrich, are the most intriguing. Bush has stated repeatedly that he is not running in 2008, but he would arguably be the most talented and qualified candidate in the field. He management of Florida through difficult financial times and natural disasters casts him in a positive public light. He easily won re-election in 2002 against a strong in an environment where the Democrats spent millions in soft money to defeat him. The biggest problem with Bush is his last name. America would have to ask itself if it is prepared to witness a Bush dynasty. If his last name were "Johnson," he would almost undoubtedly be the front-runner in 2008. As for Gingrich, the former Speaker has indicated that he will not make a decision until next year whether or not to run. He will continue with his grassroots internet-based forum where he will explore his options without officially declaring his candidacy. He enjoys solid support during the January polls mentioned earlier within the GOP field, and is seen as a solid conservative and "Victory Republican." He also has past marital issues, and one can only imagine how many times we will hear the terms "impeachment" and "government shutdown" during a 2008 race featuring Gingrich. All other candidates listed above have no chance at the nomination, and their candidacies are seen as being about one issue (Tancredo and immigration), securing the VP slot (Huckabee), and meglomania (Hagel). 

It will be interesting as we head into the election cycle. Keep in mind, it is less than 12 months until the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, and 12 months is an absolute eternity.
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Later this week, I will look into the Democrats' muddied field and provide my quick analysis. Periodically through the cycle, I will provide analysis and see who jumps from "maybe" to "front-runner" and vice-versa.
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Congratulations to the Timberwolves who ended Phoenix's 17-game winning streak last night. KG had himself a monster game. They're now back to .500 at 22-22, and are a lock to lose tomorrow night at home against Sacramento. This is a total letdown team!